Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-07-04 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-04

Brandon Marsh

PHI · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPHI vs KCMichael Wacha
Sample2169.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.0
F 15.6
V 12.3
Model 16.4% Market 11.0% Gap +5.0pp
DraftKings 780 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.8% Market 75.6% Gap +12.3pp
BetMGM -310 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.9%
76
Exit velocity89.6
66
Hard-hit%45.6%
77
xBA0.385
94
xSLG0.629
82
xwOBA0.328
68
BB%4.6%
11
Bat speed69.8
53
K%25.6%
31
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-3.1 · LF
1
Arm Strength97.1 · LF
80
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
79
Range Runs-1.5 · LF
31
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.4 · LF
83
SB Success Rate88.9% · LF
76
Sprint Speed28.2 · LF
74
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.3%
22
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.2%
16
Correct Decisions63.9%
28
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
13
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.267 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.337 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.384
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.391
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.286 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.066
Opposing pitcherMichael Wacha
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)