Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-07-01 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-01

Kyle Stowers

MIA · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 6 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIA vs COLKyle Freeland
Sample942.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 62.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.7% Market 74.7% Gap +12.4pp
BetMGM -295 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
69
Exit velocity91.0
84
Hard-hit%53.5%
95
xBA0.372
88
xSLG0.675
90
xwOBA0.332
71
BB%9.3%
59
Bat speed72.6
85
K%30.6%
13
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · LF
50
Arm Strength93.9 · LF
60
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
46
Range Runs0.2 · LF
53
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.5 · LF
27
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.5%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions66.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.301 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.305 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.289
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.287 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.015
Opposing pitcherKyle Freeland
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)