Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Kyle Stowers

MIA · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIA vs PHI--
Sample1016.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits 0.5
P 98.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 98.0% Market -- Gap +32.1pp
FanDuel 420 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
68 -17 vs proj
Exit velocity91.7
90
Hard-hit%54.8%
98
xBA0.361
85
xSLG0.654
89
xwOBA0.317
62
BB%9.0%
56
Bat speed72.9
88
K%32.2%
8 -16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · 1B
24
Arm Strength93.9 · 1B
91
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 1B
19
Range Runs0.5 · 1B
55
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.6 · LF
29
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.9%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.7%
Small sample
Correct Decisions66.1%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.299 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.303 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.335 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.287
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.287 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.017
Opposing pitcher--
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)