Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Kyle Stowers

MIA · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 3 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIA vs CHC--
Sample1096.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits 0.5
P 98.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 98.0% Market -- Gap +48.1pp
FanDuel 290 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.0%
80
Exit velocity92.4
95
Hard-hit%56.3%
98
xBA0.366
91
xSLG0.694
94
xwOBA0.331
79
BB%9.5%
62
Bat speed73.2
90
K%31.7%
11
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · 1B
23
Arm Strength93.9 · 1B
93
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 1B
13
Range Runs-1.4 · 1B
38
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.6 · 1B
28
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.8%
22
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.4%
93
Correct Decisions66.1%
49
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
57
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.330 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.314 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.335 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.290
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.376
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.287 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.026
Opposing pitcher--
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)