Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-08-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-25

Sean Murphy

ATL · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 9 Neutral
MatchupATL vs LADTyler Glasnow
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 9 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.2
F 10.9
V 6.1
Model 17.0% Market 15.6% Gap +0.7pp
FanDuel 515 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 56.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 65.2% Market 66.1% Gap +9.8pp
BetMGM -195 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.4 · C
69
Catcher Throwing-0.2 · C
50
Framing Runs-0.7 · C
40
Pop Time1.9 · C
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.5 · C
10
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 40.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions57.3%
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline75
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.274 to 0.371
RegressionNo current flag
Opposing pitcherTyler Glasnow
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)