Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-05-24 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-24

Austin Wells

NYY · Hitter
IN · 9 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupNYY vs TBDrew Rasmussen
Sample943.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.5
F 17.2
V 12.9
Model 15.6% Market 14.8% Gap +0.2pp
FanDuel 550 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 58.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 58.1% Market 67.4% Gap -3.5pp
FanDuel 290 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.6%
41 -21 vs proj
Exit velocity89.4
58
Hard-hit%47.7%
82 +24 vs proj
xBA0.313
38
xSLG0.541
58
xwOBA0.313
52
BB%14.6%
93 +47 vs proj
Bat speed70.2
60
K%25.8%
31
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.3 · C
61
Catcher Throwing-0.2 · C
36
Framing Runs3.5 · C
96
Pop Time2.0 · C
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.1 · C
8
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions57.1%
Small sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.220
Small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.343
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionPositive · 0.028
Opposing pitcherDrew Rasmussen
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)