Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-08-09 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-09

Austin Wells

NYY · Hitter · bats L · age 27
IN · 9 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupNYY vs ATLGrant Holmes
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 15 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.2
F 13.5
V 5.3
Model 20.2% Market 14.8% Gap +4.8pp
FanDuel 550 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.6% Market 71.4% Gap +12.6pp
BetMGM -250 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
47 -19 vs proj
Exit velocity88.7
58
Hard-hit%44.9%
78
xBA0.314
42
xSLG0.545
64
xwOBA0.303
47
BB%11.2%
79 +30 vs proj
Bat speed70.6
67
K%26.7%
27 -19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.3 · C
94
Catcher Throwing-1.9 · C
13
Framing Runs4.2 · C
91
Pop Time2.0 · C
27
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.8 · C
14
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.272 to 0.367
RegressionPositive · 0.029
Opposing pitcherGrant Holmes
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)