Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-08-03 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-03

Will Smith

LAD · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IL60 · 9 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupLAD vs CHCMatthew Boyd
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 60.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.6% Market 73.7% Gap +13.3pp
BetMGM -280 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.4%
95
Exit velocity90.1
78
Hard-hit%40.1%
56
xBA0.343
74
xSLG0.615
82
xwOBA0.385
98
BB%10.8%
75
Bat speed68.5
35
K%18.9%
71
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.8 · C
79
Catcher Throwing-0.5 · C
39
Framing Runs-1.1 · C
32
Pop Time2.0 · C
41
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.2 · C
45
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions70.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.294
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.351
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.296 to 0.389
RegressionPositive · 0.049
Opposing pitcherMatthew Boyd
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)