Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Will Smith

LAD · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 3 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupLAD vs CINNick Lodolo
Sample2698.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 18 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 59.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.6% Market 73.7% Gap +13.9pp
BetMGM -280 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.6%
92
Exit velocity89.9
75
Hard-hit%40.1%
58
xBA0.336
72
xSLG0.601
80
xwOBA0.378
98
BB%11.2%
81
Bat speed68.4
33
K%18.5%
75
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.6 · C
75
Catcher Throwing0.4 · C
62
Framing Runs-1.6 · C
28
Pop Time2.0 · C
38
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.2 · C
44
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.1%
90
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.9%
53
Correct Decisions70.1%
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.296 to 0.389
RegressionPositive · 0.054
Opposing pitcherNick Lodolo
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)