Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-06-02 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-02

Nolan Gorman

STL · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 4 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSTL vs TEX--
Sample1589.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits 0.5
P 98.0
F 98.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 98.0% Market -- Gap +32.2pp
FanDuel 490 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%11.7%
78
Barrel%4.9%
47 -29 vs proj
Bat speed71.2
73
Exit velocity89.3
58
Hard-hit%44.1%
68
K%30.9%
10
xBA0.324
50
xSLG0.569
66
xwOBA0.288
30 -22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength83.1 · 3B
29
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 3B
81
Range Runs0.9 · 3B
61
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.1 · 3B
7
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.3% · rebadged research
44
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.1% · rebadged research
70
Correct Decisions67.0% · rebadged research
58
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
52
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
borderline
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.223 · validated thin sample
validated thin sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.359 · validated
validated
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
validated

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.272 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.008
Opposing pitcher--
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-02
Palantir 3219 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3219 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d error rising
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)