Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Xavier Edwards

MIA · Hitter
IL10 · 1 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIA vs CHCShota Imanaga
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 6.2
F 9.7
V 10.4
Model 4.4% Market 8.0% Gap -3.6pp
BetMGM 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.7% Market 73.7% Gap +13.9pp
BetMGM -280 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.4%
15
Exit velocity85.4
22
Hard-hit%28.6%
13
xBA0.308
38
xSLG0.426
22
xwOBA0.313
61
BB%11.1%
79
Bat speed65.7
10
K%13.5%
93
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength77.5 · 2B
3
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · 2B
10
Range Runs-2.7 · 2B
25
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · 2B
79
Bolts7.0 · 2B
55
SB Success Rate78.9% · 2B
44
Sprint Speed28.3 · 2B
76
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.5%
76
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.5%
45
Correct Decisions67.5%
64
Resists FastballwOBA 0.410
1
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
72
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.280 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.261 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.031
Opposing pitcherShota Imanaga
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)