Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-05-28 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-28

Jake Burger

TEX · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti
Sample1789.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.5
F 13.4
V 10.0
Model 17.5% Market 19.2% Gap -1.7pp
BetMGM 420 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 73.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.3% Market 70.9% Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel -280 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 60.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 60.8% Market -- Gap --pp
Internal -- tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.9%
73
Exit velocity90.6
78
Hard-hit%49.0%
87
xBA0.344
69
xSLG0.591
73
xwOBA0.308
49
BB%6.4%
24
Bat speed72.2
82
K%26.6%
29
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
71
Range Runs0.7 · 1B
56
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · 1B
54
Sprint Speed27.2 · 1B
47
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.7%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions68.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.243 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.263 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.300
Small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.318
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.364
RegressionNegative · -0.048
Opposing pitcherSpencer Arrighetti
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)