Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-06-02 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-02

Jake Burger

TEX · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs STLDustin May
Sample1808.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.3
F 13.4
V 13.4
Model 16.1% Market 19.2% Gap -3.2pp
BetMGM 420 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.7%
25
Barrel%6.3%
67 -16 vs proj
Bat speed72.4
84
Exit velocity90.7
80
Hard-hit%48.5%
85
K%26.4%
30
xBA0.342
67
xSLG0.580
69
xwOBA0.307
47
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
71
Range Runs0.6 · 1B
54
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · 1B
52
Sprint Speed27.2 · 1B
47
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Limited
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.0% · rebadged research
24
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.5% · rebadged research
46
Correct Decisions62.7% · rebadged research
18
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
24
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · borderline
borderline
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.310 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.307 · validated thin sample
validated thin sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.294 · validated
validated
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.399 · validated
validated

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.364
RegressionNegative · -0.047
Opposing pitcherDustin May
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-01
Palantir 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)