Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Jake Burger

TEX · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs ATLChris Sale
Sample1927.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.5
F 13.3
V 13.1
Model 17.8% Market 20.4% Gap -2.6pp
BetMGM 390 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.8
F 67.4 EXPERIMENTAL
V 65.8 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 61.8% Market 75.6% Gap +10.6pp
FanDuel 145 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 18.9
F 21.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 18.9% Market -- Gap +2.8pp
FanDuel 360 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.7%
75
Exit velocity90.0
73
Hard-hit%46.8%
83
xBA0.333
63
xSLG0.573
70
xwOBA0.309
52
BB%7.9%
42 +27 vs proj
Bat speed73.2
91
K%26.2%
30
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
77
Range Runs1.3 · 1B
63
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · 1B
38
Sprint Speed27.3 · 1B
48
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.8%
27
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7%
55
Correct Decisions63.2%
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
31
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.308 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.310
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.300
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.393
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.364
RegressionNegative · -0.036
Opposing pitcherChris Sale
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)