Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Jake Burger

TEX · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs ATLGrant Holmes
Sample1936.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.2
F 12.2
V 13.0
Model 18.6% Market 18.8% Gap -0.8pp
DraftKings 415 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 61.3% Market 74.4% Gap +10.2pp
FanDuel 115 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 19.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 19.1% Market -- Gap +7.9pp
FanDuel 270 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.6%
74
Exit velocity89.9
72
Hard-hit%46.5%
82
xBA0.333
63
xSLG0.571
70
xwOBA0.307
51
BB%7.9%
41
Bat speed73.2
91
K%26.4%
29
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
78
Range Runs1.3 · 1B
63
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · 1B
39
Sprint Speed27.3 · 1B
48
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.8%
27
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7%
55
Correct Decisions63.2%
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
31
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.308 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.310
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.300
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.393
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.364
RegressionNegative · -0.034
Opposing pitcherGrant Holmes
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)