Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Jake Burger

TEX · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs TBNick Martinez
Sample2074.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.0
F 11.7
V 13.0
Model 17.6% Market 18.8% Gap -1.8pp
DraftKings 415 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.3% Market 74.4% Gap +14.1pp
BetMGM -290 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.5%
83
Exit velocity90.2
80
Hard-hit%47.5%
88
xBA0.329
62
xSLG0.589
77
xwOBA0.309
56
BB%7.6%
39 +22 vs proj
Bat speed73.9
93
K%26.5%
30
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
72
Range Runs1.0 · 1B
64
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.7 · 1B
29
Sprint Speed27.3 · 1B
47
SB Success Rate66.7% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.8%
27
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9%
63
Correct Decisions63.7%
26
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · small sample
83
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
34
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.295 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.327
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.311 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.325
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.399
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.364
RegressionNegative · -0.023
Opposing pitcherNick Martinez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)