Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-05-23 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-23

Casey Schmitt

SF · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 8 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSF vs CWSErick Fedde
Sample833.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 1.5
P 38.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 38.4% Market 53.2% Gap -3.9pp
FanDuel 105 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.6%
90 +36 vs proj
Exit velocity90.0
67
Hard-hit%46.6%
78 +31 vs proj
xBA0.358
79
xSLG0.663
86
xwOBA0.358
83 +38 vs proj
BB%4.8%
13
Bat speed70.0
55
K%20.3%
57 +19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
44
Arm Runs0.0 · 1B
Small sample
Range Runs0.8 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · DH
34
Sprint Speed28.1 · DH
75
SB Success Rate75.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 53.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.2%
Small sample
Correct Decisions57.9%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.233 · small sample
small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.354
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.282 to 0.358
RegressionNegative · -0.036
Opposing pitcherErick Fedde
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)