Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-07-09 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-09

Casey Schmitt

SF · Hitter
IN · 8 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSF vs COLRyan Feltner
Sample1006.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 49.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 54.4% Market 55.6% Gap +6.3pp
BetMGM -125 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.8%
90 +34 vs proj
Exit velocity89.6
69
Hard-hit%43.4%
68
xBA0.365
86
xSLG0.634
84
xwOBA0.352
86 +34 vs proj
BB%2.8%
4 -18 vs proj
Bat speed70.3
60
K%19.3%
68 +28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
45
Arm Strength89.5 · LF
19
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
46
Range Runs0.7 · LF
54
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · LF
46
SB Success Rate85.7% · LF
67
Sprint Speed28.1 · LF
71
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.5%
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5%
58
Correct Decisions67.1%
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.306 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.345
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.372 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.324
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.004
Opposing pitcherRyan Feltner
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)