Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Casey Schmitt

SF · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IL60 · 8 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSF vs SDRobbie Ray
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 53.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 63.0% Market 64.3% Gap +10.9pp
BetMGM -180 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.0%
95 +35 vs proj
Exit velocity89.9
76
Hard-hit%44.7%
78 +21 vs proj
xBA0.365
91
xSLG0.648
89
xwOBA0.355
93 +37 vs proj
BB%3.3%
5 -19 vs proj
Bat speed70.5
63
K%19.6%
69 +25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
48
Arm Strength89.5 · LF
19
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
50
Range Runs1.4 · LF
63
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · LF
54
SB Success Rate88.9% · LF
79
Sprint Speed28.0 · LF
65
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.6%
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2%
61
Correct Decisions67.1%
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
42
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.307 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.344
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.367 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.349
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.282 to 0.358
RegressionPositive · 0.005
Opposing pitcherRobbie Ray
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)