Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Josh Smith

TEX · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 8 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs SEAGeorge Kirby
Sample1554.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 55.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 65.6% Market 66.7% Gap +11.4pp
BetMGM -200 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 13.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 13.5% Market -- Gap +5.7pp
FanDuel 420 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.7%
30
Exit velocity85.9
25
Hard-hit%32.4%
23
xBA0.268
10
xSLG0.408
15
xwOBA0.276
20 -39 vs proj
BB%10.5%
73 +20 vs proj
Bat speed66.3
13
K%19.8%
66
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
63
Arm Strength79.5 · 2B
5
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
44
Range Runs-2.1 · 2B
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.8 · 2B
61
SB Success Rate66.7% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions67.0%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.280 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.289 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.348 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.308
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.292 to 0.350
RegressionNegative · -0.036
Opposing pitcherGeorge Kirby
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)