Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-05-24 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-24

Luke Raley

SEA · Hitter
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSEA vs KCSeth Lugo
Sample1198.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.1
F 15.5
V 11.7
Model 19.2% Market 16.2% Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 495 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 61.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 61.1% Market 70.9% Gap -3.6pp
FanDuel 155 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%12.3%
98 +45 vs proj
Exit velocity90.6
77
Hard-hit%51.1%
91 +30 vs proj
xBA0.446
100
xSLG0.929
99
xwOBA0.391
94 +41 vs proj
BB%6.2%
21
Bat speed73.7
93
K%32.7%
6
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · RF
48
Arm Strength97.9 · RF
91
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Range Runs-3.5 · RF
4
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · RF
59
Sprint Speed28.4 · RF
83
SB Success Rate50.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 50.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 50.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions63.6%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.255 · small sample
small sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.236
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline87
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.094
Opposing pitcherSeth Lugo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)