Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-05-31 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-31

Luke Raley

SEA · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 8 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSEA vs AZMerrill Kelly
Sample1218.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 28.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 28.0% Market 51.1% Gap +1.8pp
FanDuel 250 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 98.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 98.0% Market -- Gap +3.9pp
FanDuel 20000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%12.3%
98 +44 vs proj
Exit velocity90.0
69
Hard-hit%49.0%
86 +24 vs proj
xBA0.424
100
xSLG0.907
99
xwOBA0.382
93 +37 vs proj
BB%5.6%
19
Bat speed73.8
93
K%32.4%
6
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · RF
41
Arm Strength97.9 · RF
91
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
45
Range Runs-3.6 · RF
3
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · RF
64
Sprint Speed28.6 · RF
86
SB Success Rate50.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.7%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.2%
Small sample
Correct Decisions68.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.359 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.385
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.269 to 0.350
RegressionNegative · -0.087
Opposing pitcherMerrill Kelly
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)