Mithrandir Metrics
HOU 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

Yordan Alvarez

HOU · Hitter
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupHOU vs TEXKumar Rocker
Sample2645.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.7
F 15.7
V 11.8
Model 19.5% Market 20.3% Gap -1.6pp
DraftKings 375 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 47.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 47.0% Market 47.2% Gap +0.9pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 70.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.7% Market -- Gap +1.9pp
FanDuel -220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.7%
95
Exit velocity93.9
97
Hard-hit%51.2%
92
xBA0.426
99
xSLG0.873
99
xwOBA0.478
100
BB%14.0%
91 +18 vs proj
Bat speed74.8
97
K%17.8%
75
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
19
Arm Runs-0.3 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-1.1 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · DH
8
Sprint Speed24.6 · DH
4
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 16.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions69.0%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.258 · small sample
small sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271
Small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.326
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionPositive · 0.030
Opposing pitcherKumar Rocker
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)