Mithrandir Metrics
HOU 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Yordan Alvarez

HOU · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupHOU vs BALBrandon Young
Sample2811.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.0
F 15.5
V 15.8
Model 22.4% Market 19.8% Gap +1.8pp
FanDuel 385 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 68.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.0% Market 82.1% Gap +12.4pp
FanDuel -155 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 29.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 29.7% Market -- Gap +7.4pp
FanDuel 170 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%12.1%
99
Exit velocity94.7
99
Hard-hit%53.3%
96
xBA0.422
99
xSLG0.900
99
xwOBA0.476
100
BB%14.8%
97
Bat speed74.9
98
K%17.6%
77
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
11
Arm Runs-0.3 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-1.6 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.4 · DH
1
Sprint Speed24.9 · DH
4
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.9%
62
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0%
62
Correct Decisions65.7%
44
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
68
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.346 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.326 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.302
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.404
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.389
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.333 to 0.438
RegressionPositive · 0.010
Opposing pitcherBrandon Young
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)