Mithrandir Metrics
HOU 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Isaac Paredes

HOU · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupHOU vs BALBrandon Young
Sample2254.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.4
F 14.9
V 14.6
Model 20.0% Market 15.2% Gap +4.1pp
FanDuel 530 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 56.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 56.5% Market 72.2% Gap +9.6pp
FanDuel 135 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 20.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 20.3% Market -- Gap +6.0pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.0%
34
Exit velocity86.7
31
Hard-hit%30.2%
15
xBA0.295
24
xSLG0.447
27
xwOBA0.316
61
BB%9.8%
65
Bat speed66.0
11
K%16.3%
82
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 3B
41
Arm Strength80.8 · 3B
10
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
43
Range Runs0.6 · 3B
54
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.9 · 3B
21
Sprint Speed25.0 · 3B
5
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.9%
67
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3%
49
Correct Decisions66.9%
59
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
66
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.266 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.256 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.377 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.390
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.283 to 0.366
RegressionNegative · -0.036
Opposing pitcherBrandon Young
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)