Mithrandir Metrics
HOU 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Isaac Paredes

HOU · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupHOU vs AZMerrill Kelly
Sample2401.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.4
F 12.5
V 13.9
Model 17.9% Market 15.2% Gap +2.1pp
FanDuel 530 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 71.2% Market 72.2% Gap +13.3pp
BetMGM -260 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.4%
28
Exit velocity86.1
30
Hard-hit%28.5%
13
xBA0.288
19
xSLG0.429
24
xwOBA0.320
69
BB%10.7%
75
Bat speed65.5
9
K%13.3%
94
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 3B
38
Arm Strength80.8 · 3B
7
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
46
Range Runs-0.6 · 3B
49
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.3 · 3B
21
Sprint Speed25.1 · 3B
6
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.3%
65
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7%
43
Correct Decisions66.5%
55
Resists FastballwOBA 0.342
40
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
61
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.261 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.256 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.394 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.390
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.283 to 0.366
RegressionNegative · -0.039
Opposing pitcherMerrill Kelly
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)