Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 21 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Iván Herrera

STL · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSTL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez
Sample1027.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.109, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.080, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.059, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.8
F 15.5
V 13.5
Model 17.2% Market 13.1% Gap +3.5pp
FanDuel 635 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.1% Market 77.0% Gap +10.9pp
BetMGM -335 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.1%
36 -31 vs proj
Exit velocity89.1
61
Hard-hit%39.7%
53 -22 vs proj
xBA0.309
36
xSLG0.476
38
xwOBA0.343
80
BB%11.7%
83 +27 vs proj
Bat speed71.8
77
K%16.3%
83
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.2 · C
38
Catcher Throwing-3.2 · C
3
Framing Runs-0.2 · C
47
Pop Time2.0 · C
21
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.6 · DH
10
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
93
Sprint Speed25.9 · DH
16
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.1%
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.0%
41
Correct Decisions66.1%
50
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
63
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.314
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.360
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.324 to 0.383
RegressionNegative · -0.022
Opposing pitcherEduardo Rodriguez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-21
Palantir 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.008 14d error falling
Fangorn 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 4743 props Brier 0.121 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)