Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Iván Herrera

STL · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupSTL vs COLRyan Feltner
Sample1199.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.2
F 13.4
V 11.6
Model 16.2% Market 12.6% Gap +3.2pp
DraftKings 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.8% Market 71.8% Gap +13.2pp
BetMGM -255 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.8%
33 -36 vs proj
Exit velocity89.2
66
Hard-hit%40.6%
60 -18 vs proj
xBA0.317
49
xSLG0.475
40
xwOBA0.331
78
BB%10.9%
78 +21 vs proj
Bat speed71.3
74
K%18.1%
75
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.3 · C
68
Catcher Throwing-3.7 · C
1
Framing Runs-1.1 · C
36
Pop Time2.0 · C
13
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.8 · DH
15
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
94
Sprint Speed26.1 · DH
19
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.5%
66
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3%
31
Correct Decisions65.2%
41
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · small sample
33
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330
68
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
56
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.302 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.310
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.305 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.390
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.324 to 0.383
RegressionNegative · -0.016
Opposing pitcherRyan Feltner
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)