Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Heliot Ramos

SF · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 5 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSF vs SEALogan Gilbert
Sample1402.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.7
F 14.9
V 13.1
Model 16.0% Market 13.1% Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 635 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 50.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 50.6% Market 71.0% Gap +9.3pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 17.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 17.2% Market -- Gap +9.1pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.3%
97 +20 vs proj
Exit velocity92.4
94
Hard-hit%51.2%
93
xBA0.386
95
xSLG0.686
92
xwOBA0.345
81
BB%4.8%
12 -24 vs proj
Bat speed70.7
67
K%25.8%
33 -25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
47
Arm Strength92.6 · LF
50
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
11
Range Runs-1.8 · LF
28
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · LF
57
Sprint Speed27.2 · LF
44
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.0%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.302 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.351
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.307 to 0.371
RegressionNegative · -0.013
Opposing pitcherLogan Gilbert
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)