Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Heliot Ramos

SF · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 5 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSF vs ATLBryce Elder
Sample1520.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.0
F 12.6
V 11.8
Model 17.7% Market 13.1% Gap +4.0pp
FanDuel 635 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.7% Market 71.8% Gap +13.1pp
BetMGM -255 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.7%
91
Exit velocity92.2
94
Hard-hit%50.2%
94
xBA0.364
89
xSLG0.629
85
xwOBA0.326
75
BB%6.4%
27
Bat speed71.1
73
K%27.0%
28 -31 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.7 · LF
34
Arm Strength92.6 · LF
45
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · LF
4
Range Runs-5.0 · LF
12
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · LF
62
SB Success Rate80.0% · LF
48
Sprint Speed27.3 · LF
47
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.8%
32
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.4%
59
Correct Decisions65.7%
46
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
36
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.342
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.310 to 0.375
RegressionPositive · 0.000
Opposing pitcherBryce Elder
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)