Mithrandir Metrics
WSH 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Luis García Jr.

WSH · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupWSH vs MIARyan Gusto
Sample2607.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.1
F 12.4
V 12.1
Model 19.1% Market 12.5% Gap +6.2pp
DraftKings 675 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 77.1% Market 78.0% Gap +14.8pp
BetMGM -355 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.8%
98 +22 vs proj
Exit velocity91.5
90
Hard-hit%46.7%
85 +18 vs proj
xBA0.349
80
xSLG0.614
82
xwOBA0.355
93 +17 vs proj
BB%4.7%
13
Bat speed72.7
87
K%17.0%
82
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
72
Range Runs0.5 · 1B
58
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.8 · 1B
14
Sprint Speed26.4 · 1B
25
SB Success Rate50.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.0%
17
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.4%
68
Correct Decisions63.2%
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.320 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.302 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.310 to 0.371
RegressionNegative · -0.032
Opposing pitcherRyan Gusto
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)