Mithrandir Metrics
WSH 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Luis García Jr.

WSH · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 4 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupWSH vs LADBlake Snell
Sample2618.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 51.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 60.7% Market 61.5% Gap +9.9pp
BetMGM -160 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.6%
97 +21 vs proj
Exit velocity91.4
90
Hard-hit%46.6%
86 +18 vs proj
xBA0.346
78
xSLG0.607
81
xwOBA0.351
90
BB%4.6%
12
Bat speed72.7
87
K%17.0%
82
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
72
Range Runs0.5 · 1B
60
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.0 · 1B
12
Sprint Speed26.5 · 1B
26
SB Success Rate50.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.0%
16
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.7%
65
Correct Decisions63.0%
22
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
24
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.316 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.289 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.300 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.347
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.372
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.310 to 0.371
RegressionNegative · -0.031
Opposing pitcherBlake Snell
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)