Mithrandir Metrics
ATH 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Lawrence Butler

ATH · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 4 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupATH vs WSHCade Cavalli
Sample1344.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.0
F 14.7
V 14.6
Model 18.1% Market 14.9% Gap +2.6pp
FanDuel 545 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.4
F 63.6 EXPERIMENTAL
V 62.4 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 71.0% Market 72.2% Gap +9.8pp
BetMGM -260 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.8%
31 -37 vs proj
Exit velocity88.6
55
Hard-hit%44.4%
73
xBA0.341
70
xSLG0.506
48
xwOBA0.307
49 -17 vs proj
BB%11.8%
83 +31 vs proj
Bat speed71.9
78
K%27.1%
25
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.7 · RF
31
Arm Strength91.3 · RF
33
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · RF
2
Range Runs-7.4 · RF
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.2 · RF
13
Sprint Speed26.3 · RF
24
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions70.6%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.302 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.257 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.294
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.307 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.313
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.315
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.297 to 0.362
RegressionPositive · 0.006
Opposing pitcherCade Cavalli
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)