Mithrandir Metrics
ATH 2026-07-22 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-22

Lawrence Butler

ATH · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 8 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupATH vs AZMerrill Kelly
Sample1360.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.6
F 15.5
V 14.1
Model 17.9% Market 14.9% Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 545 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 30.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.4% Market 30.3% Gap +1.1pp
FanDuel 500 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 17.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 17.2% Market -- Gap +10.6pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.7%
28 -39 vs proj
Exit velocity88.8
58
Hard-hit%44.7%
75
xBA0.340
68
xSLG0.502
47
xwOBA0.304
48 -19 vs proj
BB%11.6%
82 +29 vs proj
Bat speed71.9
79
K%27.2%
25
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · RF
27
Arm Strength91.3 · RF
32
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · RF
2
Range Runs-7.4 · RF
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.2 · RF
15
Sprint Speed26.5 · RF
27
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions70.6%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.302 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.257 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.294
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.307 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.313
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.315
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.297 to 0.362
RegressionPositive · 0.005
Opposing pitcherMerrill Kelly
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)