Mithrandir Metrics
ATH 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Lawrence Butler

ATH · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupATH vs TEXJacob deGrom
Sample1479.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.0
F 12.6
V 13.7
Model 20.0% Market 14.9% Gap +4.5pp
FanDuel 545 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.9% Market 69.7% Gap +12.3pp
BetMGM -230 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
48 -22 vs proj
Exit velocity89.0
63
Hard-hit%45.4%
81
xBA0.341
74
xSLG0.540
62
xwOBA0.320
69
BB%12.3%
88 +34 vs proj
Bat speed71.7
77
K%26.0%
33
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.6 · RF
16
Arm Strength93.3 · RF
49
Outs Above Avg-7.0 · RF
2
Range Runs-8.7 · RF
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.2 · RF
11
SB Success Rate85.7% · RF
67
Sprint Speed26.8 · RF
33
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.3%
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.5%
76
Correct Decisions71.6%
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
90
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.318 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.257 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.311
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.297 to 0.362
RegressionNegative · -0.015
Opposing pitcherJacob deGrom
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)