Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-07-18 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Michael Harris II

ATL · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupATL vs TEXMacKenzie Gore
Sample2310.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 55.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 55.6% Market 74.4% Gap +10.3pp
FanDuel -105 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 19.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 19.6% Market -- Gap +15.5pp
FanDuel 185 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.7%
95
Exit velocity91.4
88
Hard-hit%51.6%
94
xBA0.383
93
xSLG0.655
88
xwOBA0.363
90
BB%4.0%
9
Bat speed72.8
87
K%19.9%
66
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.6 · CF
67
Arm Strength94.0 · CF
61
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
46
Range Runs6.5 · CF
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.5 · CF
4
SB Success Rate80.0% · CF
45
Sprint Speed27.7 · CF
58
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.7%
7
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.6%
36
Correct Decisions59.2%
7
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline88
9
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.310 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.258 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.316
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.362 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.351
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.315 to 0.385
RegressionNegative · -0.004
Opposing pitcherMacKenzie Gore
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)