Mithrandir Metrics
CLE 2026-07-07 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-07

Gabriel Arias

CLE · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 8 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCLE vs MINTaj Bradley
Sample1024.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 38.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 38.1% Market 55.6% Gap +5.8pp
FanDuel 150 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 9.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 9.1% Market -- Gap +16.9pp
FanDuel 370 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.9%
46
Exit velocity92.8
95
Hard-hit%51.8%
94
xBA0.398
96
xSLG0.714
95
xwOBA0.289
32
BB%7.8%
38
Bat speed72.4
82
K%35.9%
2
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 3B
69
Range Runs1.7 · 3B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.6 · SS
29
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.4%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions66.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.270 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.297 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.318
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.246 to 0.345
RegressionNegative · -0.112
Opposing pitcherTaj Bradley
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)