Mithrandir Metrics
CLE 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Gabriel Arias

CLE · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 8 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCLE vs DETKeider Montero
Sample1085.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 47.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 55.2% Market 56.5% Gap +9.0pp
BetMGM -130 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
49 -16 vs proj
Exit velocity90.1
78
Hard-hit%43.3%
73
xBA0.391
97
xSLG0.663
91
xwOBA0.274
22
BB%6.6%
29
Bat speed72.6
86
K%38.3%
2 -17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength92.3 · 3B
84
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
46
Range Runs1.6 · 3B
70
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.8 · 3B
32
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.4%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.268 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.297
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.346
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.246 to 0.345
RegressionNegative · -0.074
Opposing pitcherKeider Montero
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)