Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-08-08 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-08

Alejandro Kirk

TOR · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IL10 · 8 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTOR vs PHIAaron Nola
Sample1966.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 56.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.0% Market 69.2% Gap +12.4pp
BetMGM -225 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 13.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 13.6% Market -- Gap +15.8pp
FanDuel 240 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.7%
10 -57 vs proj
Exit velocity88.1
51
Hard-hit%38.8%
50 -23 vs proj
xBA0.296
25
xSLG0.411
18
xwOBA0.296
38 -45 vs proj
BB%10.2%
70 +15 vs proj
Bat speed69.8
53
K%14.1%
91
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs2.9 · C
99
Catcher Throwing-0.5 · C
39
Framing Runs3.3 · C
81
Pop Time2.0 · C
13
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed23.0 · C
0
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.8%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.6%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.285
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.343
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.335
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.316 to 0.378
RegressionNegative · -0.047
Opposing pitcherAaron Nola
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)