Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-08-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-25

Gabriel Moreno

AZ · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupAZ vs CHCClay Holmes
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.0
F 12.1
V 8.6
Model 14.1% Market 10.6% Gap +3.1pp
DraftKings 815 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 42.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 42.7% Market 41.7% Gap +0.8pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
67
Exit velocity89.5
70
Hard-hit%43.1%
72
xBA0.355
84
xSLG0.555
67
xwOBA0.368
96 +16 vs proj
BB%11.5%
81 +20 vs proj
Bat speed69.8
52
K%15.1%
88 +19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.2 · C
88
Catcher Throwing1.8 · C
80
Framing Runs3.9 · C
84
Pop Time1.9 · C
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.4 · C
36
Sprint Speed26.1 · C
19
SB Success Rate75.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.4%
51
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.0%
24
Correct Decisions61.8%
14
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
37

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.308 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.023
Opposing pitcherClay Holmes
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)