Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Gabriel Moreno

AZ · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupAZ vs PHIAaron Nola
Sample1376.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 57.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.9% Market 69.7% Gap +12.3pp
BetMGM -230 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
67
Exit velocity89.4
70
Hard-hit%43.3%
73
xBA0.353
83
xSLG0.553
66
xwOBA0.368
96 +16 vs proj
BB%11.7%
85 +24 vs proj
Bat speed69.9
54
K%14.9%
89 +19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.3 · C
88
Catcher Throwing2.1 · C
83
Framing Runs4.3 · C
86
Pop Time1.9 · C
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.4 · C
34
Sprint Speed26.1 · C
19
SB Success Rate75.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.0%
54
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.4%
30
Correct Decisions62.3%
17
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
42
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.252 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.309
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.388
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.308 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.024
Opposing pitcherAaron Nola
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)