Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-09-01 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-01

Gabriel Moreno

AZ · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupAZ vs PHIJesús Luzardo
Sample1381.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 60.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.3% Market 74.4% Gap +14.1pp
BetMGM -290 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.0%
66
Exit velocity89.4
69
Hard-hit%43.1%
72
xBA0.351
81
xSLG0.548
65
xwOBA0.365
96 +16 vs proj
BB%11.6%
84 +23 vs proj
Bat speed69.9
52
K%15.0%
88 +18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.3 · C
88
Catcher Throwing2.1 · C
83
Framing Runs4.1 · C
85
Pop Time1.9 · C
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.4 · C
34
Sprint Speed26.1 · C
19
SB Success Rate75.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.2%
55
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.0%
25
Correct Decisions62.2%
17
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.259 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.310
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.388
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.308 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.028
Opposing pitcherJesús Luzardo
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)