Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

Maikel Garcia

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs NYYWill Warren
Sample1861.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.9
F 15.7
V 11.8
Model 13.4% Market 8.5% Gap +4.5pp
DraftKings 1035 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 35.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 35.9% Market 59.6% Gap +0.8pp
FanDuel 300 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 28.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 28.8% Market -- Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.4%
26 -15 vs proj
Exit velocity89.8
65
Hard-hit%43.6%
65
xBA0.332
59
xSLG0.446
29
xwOBA0.323
61
BB%8.9%
51
Bat speed70.4
64
K%14.4%
89
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 3B
41
Arm Strength89.1 · 3B
76
Outs Above Avg5.0 · 3B
96
Range Runs3.9 · 3B
93
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · 3B
46
SB Success Rate57.1% · 3B
9
Sprint Speed27.7 · 3B
62
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.7%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions63.0%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.254 · small sample
small sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.262
Small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.311 to 0.374
RegressionNegative · -0.006
Opposing pitcherWill Warren
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)