Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-06-02 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-02

Otto Lopez

MIA · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IN · 9 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIA vs WSHMiles Mikolas
Sample1191.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 42.7
F 66.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V 65.5 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 42.7% Market 63.8% Gap +2.1pp
FanDuel -125 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 98.0
F 98.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 98.0% Market -- Gap +19.7pp
FanDuel 3000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%3.8%
7 -21 vs proj
Barrel%6.0%
63 +20 vs proj
Bat speed69.9
53
Exit velocity90.1
72
Hard-hit%44.4%
69 +29 vs proj
K%15.8%
84
xBA0.351
75
xSLG0.540
59
xwOBA0.335
71 +18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.8 · SS
95
Arm Strength83.9 · SS
35
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · SS
27
Range Runs-0.3 · SS
39
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.3 · SS
87
Bolts1.0 · SS
17
SB Success Rate75.0% · SS
35
Sprint Speed28.5 · SS
83
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.5% · rebadged research
31
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 34.2% · rebadged research
5
Correct Decisions60.7% · rebadged research
11
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline90
11
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.340 · borderline
borderline
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.296 · validated thin sample
validated thin sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361 · validated
validated
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.407 · validated
validated

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.071
Opposing pitcherMiles Mikolas
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-02
Palantir 3219 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3219 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d error rising
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)