Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Otto Lopez

MIA · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IN · 9 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIA vs CHCShota Imanaga
Sample1506.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 44.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 44.5% Market 68.8% Gap +12.3pp
FanDuel 105 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 17.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 17.7% Market -- Gap +16.8pp
FanDuel 190 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.1%
54
Exit velocity88.5
57
Hard-hit%41.3%
64 +17 vs proj
xBA0.327
60
xSLG0.490
45
xwOBA0.323
71
BB%5.1%
15 -17 vs proj
Bat speed69.4
46
K%13.1%
94
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.7 · SS
93
Arm Strength89.9 · SS
72
Outs Above Avg11.0 · SS
97
Range Runs8.6 · SS
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.9 · SS
96
Bolts3.0 · SS
35
SB Success Rate86.7% · SS
71
Sprint Speed28.5 · SS
80
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.9%
42
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.7%
10
Correct Decisions63.0%
22
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
16
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.335 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.261 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.401
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.043
Opposing pitcherShota Imanaga
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)