Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Geraldo Perdomo

AZ · Hitter · bats L · age 27
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupAZ vs HOUCristian Javier
Sample2293.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.5
F 13.4
V 10.7
Model 15.0% Market 9.3% Gap +5.3pp
DraftKings 935 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.3% Market 81.3% Gap +16.8pp
BetMGM -435 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.0%
12 -17 vs proj
Exit velocity85.9
26
Hard-hit%31.2%
20
xBA0.305
34
xSLG0.411
16
xwOBA0.329
77
BB%14.0%
95
Bat speed63.6
4
K%12.3%
96
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · SS
88
Arm Strength93.2 · SS
90
Outs Above Avg11.0 · SS
97
Range Runs8.7 · SS
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · SS
39
SB Success Rate70.8% · SS
25
Sprint Speed27.0 · SS
39
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.4%
89
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.5%
22
Correct Decisions67.2%
62
Resists FastballwOBA 0.365
14
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
71
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.308 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.306 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.349
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.303 to 0.369
RegressionNegative · -0.026
Opposing pitcherCristian Javier
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)