Mithrandir Metrics
HOU 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Yainer Diaz

HOU · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IN · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupHOU vs AZMerrill Kelly
Sample1758.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 61.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.8% Market 75.9% Gap +14.8pp
BetMGM -315 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
49 -17 vs proj
Exit velocity88.3
55
Hard-hit%37.1%
44 -34 vs proj
xBA0.318
50
xSLG0.481
43
xwOBA0.304
48 -31 vs proj
BB%3.7%
7
Bat speed71.0
72
K%16.0%
85
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.0 · C
51
Catcher Throwing-0.3 · C
46
Framing Runs-3.5 · C
17
Pop Time2.0 · C
38
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.1 · C
19
SB Success Rate0.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.5%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.2%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.314 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.338
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.349
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.304 to 0.378
RegressionNegative · -0.023
Opposing pitcherMerrill Kelly
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)