Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-05-23 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-23

Alec Burleson

STL · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupSTL vs CINChris Paddack
Sample1593.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 14 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.7
F 26.0
V 19.5
Model 22.3% Market 13.3% Gap +8.5pp
DraftKings 625 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.0%
81 +23 vs proj
Exit velocity91.4
86
Hard-hit%49.1%
86 +27 vs proj
xBA0.362
82
xSLG0.678
87
xwOBA0.391
94 +23 vs proj
BB%9.3%
57 +28 vs proj
Bat speed70.4
64
K%16.4%
82
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 1B
14
Range Runs-0.9 · 1B
33
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · 1B
75
Sprint Speed25.6 · 1B
14
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.318 to 0.376
RegressionNegative · -0.010
Opposing pitcherChris Paddack
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)