Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-06-12 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-12

Alec Burleson

STL · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSTL vs MINJoe Ryan
Sample1662.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 19.2% Market 13.3% Gap +5.4pp
DraftKings 625 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.1%
84 +26 vs proj
Exit velocity91.5
88
Hard-hit%48.9%
88 +25 vs proj
xBA0.354
77
xSLG0.654
86
xwOBA0.385
96 +22 vs proj
BB%9.1%
55 +26 vs proj
Bat speed70.7
67
K%15.5%
85
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
45
Range Runs-0.4 · 1B
41
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.8 · 1B
72
Sprint Speed25.7 · 1B
14
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.7%
41
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.6%
28
Correct Decisions64.7%
35
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.317
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.318 to 0.376
RegressionNegative · -0.009
Opposing pitcherJoe Ryan
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-14
Palantir 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)