Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-08-26 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-26

Alec Burleson

STL · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSTL vs BALKyle Bradish
Sample1908.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.2
F 12.6
V 13.2
Model 17.2% Market 13.3% Gap +3.5pp
DraftKings 625 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 36.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 34.0% Market 33.6% Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel 185 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 22.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.2% Market -- Gap +7.2pp
FanDuel 240 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.2%
88 +24 vs proj
Exit velocity92.2
94
Hard-hit%50.1%
94 +25 vs proj
xBA0.365
90
xSLG0.659
90
xwOBA0.383
98 +16 vs proj
BB%8.4%
50 +17 vs proj
Bat speed71.7
77
K%16.8%
82
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 1B
12
Range Runs-2.1 · 1B
31
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · 1B
30
Sprint Speed25.6 · 1B
11
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.8%
32
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7%
56
Correct Decisions64.7%
36
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
36
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.306 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.332
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.318 to 0.376
RegressionNegative · -0.001
Opposing pitcherKyle Bradish
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)